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- Stable labor data lifts S&P500 and the dollar, tempering near‑term Fed rate cut bets
- President Trump announced plans for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200bn MBS
- Leveraged Loan default rates fall, closing in on sub-investment grade corporate levels
- Non-core European sovereigns outperform as Italian issuance drew record demand
- Peru’s central bank delivered a policy rate hold for the fourth consecutive month
- MiniMax shares double on IPO debut as Beijing’s AI push spurs listing wave
Payrolls, Benches, and Bricks
U.S. payrolls and a possible Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs take center stage for investors today, with all eyes on the judicial bench. Today’s payrolls data point to a labor market holding up better than feared, with modest signs of stabilization. As for tariffs, if the Court finds the use of emergency powers unlawful, the government could face up to $150 bn in potential refund obligations to importers baring potential fallback options. Separately, improving housing affordability remains a top policy priority. President Trump announced a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 bn in mortgage bonds, spurring a rally in agency MBS and real estate lending stocks. Asian currencies softened into the payroll and Supreme court event window, with the yen hovering just below ¥158/$ and positioning stretched as leveraged funds sit near record shorts. In the Euro area, European equities rose on upbeat industrial and retail data while non-core EGBs continue to outperform bunds after Italian issuance drew record demand. In China, producer prices have turned higher, raising doubts about the durability of the deflation narrative. Gold slipped during Asian hours for a fourth straight session as regional demand fades, while Brent climbed on unrest in Venezuela and digital shutdowns in Iran.
