Booms and Busts: Ready For The Next One?

Booms and Busts: Are We Better Able to Deal with Them Today?

Location: Meeting Halls A&B, HQ1-3-430A&B

English

Join the conversation via #BoomsandBusts

Overview

Financial crises are associated with boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices. A consensus has emerged that booms are dangerous, although not all lead to crises. The challenge for policymakers is to identify booms and bubbles and decide whether to act on them. Yet all too often, policymakers believe that “this time is different.” At present, many markets are booming amid calls to roll back some measures put in place after the global financial crisis. There are also concerns that innovative technologies may give rise to “shadow booms.” This seminar will discuss what we know about boom–bust cycles, how we identify “bad” booms and how to manage them, and how to limit the potential for busts.

Seminar Report

Contributor: Danny Xufeng Jiang

Moderator: Joumanna Bercetche, Reporter, CNBC

Panelists:

David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF

Agustin Carstens, General Manager, Bank of International Settlements

Philip Lane, Governor, Central bank of Ireland

Gene Frieda, Executive Vice President, PIMCO

Hélène Rey, Lord Bagri Professor of Economics, London Business School

A decade after the outbreak of the global financial crisis (GFC), are we better prepared to cope with booms and busts? Panelists discussed the outlook and lessons learned. They broadly agreed that the global economy and financial system are in a better shape, but policymakers must be mindful of risks and rebuild buffers on a timely basis.

Key Points:

Identifying booms and busts. Lipton pointed to the broad-based strengthening of growth momentum across the world, but he did not consider the current economic recovery as a boom or overheating. Lane believed that in recognizing boom and bust cycles, it is critical to look closely at drivers of economic growth and the composition of debt in countries. Carstens believed that regulators need to be watchful of standard indicators such as the household debt and housing prices, among others. Rey said that the current set of indicators, while improved, are unable to accurately predict crises.
Lessons learned. Lipton argued that many countries have learned from the GFC, but cautioned that people are quick to forget. It is important that the financial and regulatory reforms put in place after the crisis are not unwound. Frieda noted that bond markets of developed countries have become highly inter-connected and co-integrated. In the same vein, Rey noted that there are strong global co-movements of economic and financial variables like asset prices and capital flows, while economic models have a long way to go to better reflect real economic and market developments.
Guarding against the next crisis. Panelists broadly agreed that a preemptive approach and multilateral collaboration would be crucial to safeguard stability and prevent crises. Carstens argued that markets tend to run ahead of the authorities, and regulators need to keep up with or be ahead of the curve. Lipton underlined the need to look carefully at the public and private sector debt levels and features. If there is another crisis, and governments and the international community haven’t found a way to work together, the repercussions in terms of credibility could be severe.

Quotes:

“There is surely going to be a recession-- the question is how dangerous it will be.” David Lipton

“If we have another crisis, we have little fiscal room to react.” Hélène Rey

Moderator

Joumanna Bercetche
Reporter, CNBC

Joumanna Bercetche is a London-based reporter for CNBC and a macro and fixed income specialist. A dual national with UK and Lebanese citizenship, Joumanna speaks Arabic and English. She reports on key decisions taken by financial institutions across the world, such as the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions. Joumanna joined CNBC in 2017, after working previously for Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch in London. She studied Economics as an undergraduate at the American University of Beirut where she was the recipient of the Penrose Award.

Panelists

David Lipton
First Deputy Managing Director, IMF

David Lipton assumed the position of First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund on September 1, 2011. On March 28, 2016, he was reappointed for a second five-year term beginning September 1, 2016. Before coming to the Fund, Mr. Lipton was Special Assistant to the President, and served as Senior Director for International Economic Affairs at the National Economic Council and National Security Council at the White House. Previously, he was a Managing Director at Citi, and also served in the Clinton administration as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs — and before that as Assistant Secretary. Mr. Lipton earned a Ph.D. and M.A. from Harvard University in 1982 and a B.A. from Wesleyan University in 1975.

Agustin Carstens
General Manager, Bank of International Settlements (BIS)

Agustin Carstens became General Manager of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) in Switzerland on December 1, 2017. He was Governor of the Bank of Mexico from 2010 to 2017. A member of the BIS Board from 2011 to 2017, he was chair of the Global Economy Meeting and the Economic Consultative Council from 2013 until 2017. He also chaired the International Monetary and Financial Committee, the IMF's policy advisory committee from 2015 to 2017. From 1999 to 2000, Mr. Carstens was Executive Director at the IMF. He later served as Mexico’s deputy finance minister (2000–03) and as Deputy Managing Director at the IMF (2003–06). He was Mexico's finance minister from 2006 to 2009. He holds an MA and a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago.

Philip Lane
Governor, Central Bank of Ireland

Philip R. Lane is the 11th Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He has chaired the Advisory Scientific Committee of the European Systemic Risk Board and was Director of the International Macroeconomics and Finance Program at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). Mr. Lane was also an academic consultant for the European Central Bank, European Commission, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, OECD, Asian Development Bank and a number of national central banks. A graduate of Trinity College Dublin, Mr. Lane received a PhD in Economics from Harvard University in 1995 and was Assistant Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University (1995-1997) before returning to Dublin.

Hélène Rey
Lord Bagri Professor of Economics, London Business School

Hélène Rey is the Lord Bagri Professor of Economics at London Business School. Until 2007, she was at Princeton University, as Professor of Economics and International Affairs in the Economics Department and the Woodrow Wilson School. Since 2005, Ms. Rey has received several prestigious awards for making significant contribution to the Economics profession. She writes a regular column for the French newspaper Les Echos. Ms. Rey received her undergraduate degree from ENSAE, a Master in Engineering Economic Systems from Stanford University and her PhDs from the London School of Economics and the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales.

Gene Frieda
Executive Vice President and Global Strategist, PIMCO

Gene Frieda joined PIMCO in 2016 as executive vice president and global strategist based in London, and is co-head of foreign exchange strategy. Prior to that, he served as a partner and global strategist at Moore Capital, focusing on global macroeconomic and financial sector policy issues. He also ran emerging markets research and strategy for the Royal Bank of Scotland in London and for 4Cast in London and Singapore. He has 23 years of investment experience and holds a master's degree in economics from the London School of Economics. He has served as a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Global Imbalances, a member of the UN Expert Panel on Financing Global Education and as an associate of the Political Economy of Financial Markets program at Oxford University.